Joe Wilcox says Vista is failing (again)
In this morning’s article, Windows: A Monopoly Shakes, Joe Wilcox paints a grim picture for Windows. Apparently, about 90% of surveyed enterprises adopted Windows XP in 2007, and about 6.3% adopted Vista, mainly taking away from Windows 2000 adoptions. I don’t know about yours, but my boots are shaking.
Is anybody really surprised? Enterprise IT isn’t exactly a new thing, and this isn’t the first time Windows has shipped. These guys refresh their PCs in cycles. Lots of all-Windows 2000 shops who never started rolling over to XP are now beginning their early rounds of rolling out Vista boxes. They’re in more of a hurry, since Windows 2000 is pretty ancient. So much so that it originates from a time when we appended “2000” after product names and thought it sounded cool and futuristic.
The Windows XP guys sticking with it through 2007 doesn’t shock me. Most of the XP-based enterprises I’m familiar with are in the pilot stages for moving to Vista. Lots of them have been working closely with Microsoft to make sure that updates like SP1 and Windows Search 4.0 address their deployment issues. This is just how it goes.
Some number will even decide to “skip” Vista. I’m sure it’s not a prospect Microsoft likes to acknowledge, but just look at how many companies held onto Windows 2000. Throughout the entire (long) lifetime of XP!
Joe says that Windows adoption on the whole declined 3.7 percent over the course of the year (98.6% in January to 94.9% in December). I have no idea what that means. Is there some comparison to the year before that might put those numbers in context? Or are we saying that all months of the year are equal? Did anyone consider that the impending release of Vista SP1 might have led some Windows-based companies to hold off purchasing for a few months?
I don’t mean to belittle the apparent gains made by the Apple and Linux camps in the last three months of 2007. I just think it’s silly to make a big deal about three months of “decline” for Windows in light of those other factors. Joe says that “Vista is in real trouble.”
And yet it looks like last year more companies bought Vista machines than Macs and Linux PCs combined. I’d say that’s pretty darn good for an OS that was released at the beginning of the year.
Well, that’s my take anyway.